Best Picture Predictions (Christmas Update).

We are approaching the end of the year and we have seen the nominations from the Golden Globes, the Sag Awards, and the Critic's Choice Awards. I would say that based on everything, we now know the films that will be happy with just a nomination, and the films that have a chance at winning, and I would say we're down to 4 films that can.

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Based on all the early processor nominations, Hollywood hasn't missed a bit yet. It has collected all the nominations it needs and it hasn't had any major snubs anywhere so far. It's also looking like the film that will pick up the most nominations come Oscar Mourning, that can't be ignored.

2. Parasite

Parasite has been sweeping many of the local critic awards, while the critics are not people voting, it is important that so many people are loving the film. Parasite is shaping up to be the critical darling of the potential Best Picture Nominees, and we have seen critical darlings be academy favorites as well, most Recently with Moonlight. That SAG ensemble nomination is also huge considering the actor's branch is the largest in the Academy.

3. The Irishman

The Irishman looked strong at the Critic's Choice Awards, but De Niro being snubbed at both the Globes and SAG is troublesome. Perhaps it is just a road bump, but it's enough for me to say it's not the Best Picture front runner as of this moment.

4. 1917

1917 still looks like the technical film of the year, which could help it walk away with the most or second-most wins come Oscar Night. A strong box office run would also help this War film move up in the race. It's potential lack of writing or acting nominations are a concern though.

5, Little Woman.

While the underperformance at the Globes and missing out at SAG is concerning, I believe once enough people see it during the Holiday season, it will pick back up again. some good showings at the box office could help too.

6. Joker

With nominations for picture from both Globes and Critic's Choice, as well as the strong popularity of the film from both the industry and general audience, Joker is looking like more of a sure bet in the Best Picture lineup.

7. Marriage Story

While I don't think Marriage Story has what it needs to pull off a win in Best Picture, the acclaim and the key nominations it's been getting keep it as a most likely nominee.

8. Jojo Rabbit

Jojo has taken a dip since it's audience award at the Toronto Film Festival, but it's good showing the guilds thus far keep it in the lineup. I am a little worried that this could be a surprise snub come nominations mourning.

9, Ford V Ferarri

Ford V Ferrari looks like it's going to be battling for that final 8th or 9th spot come Nominations mourning. I wouldn't bet against it as of now though.

10, Bombshell

Bombshell will likely be competing with films like Ford V Ferrari for that final spot in Best Picture. It's timely and important subject matter will definitely be appreciated by many voters, but its chances of getting in are about 50/50.